The latest Oxfordshire County Council housing-led population forecasts are now available on Oxfordshire Insight. There is:
- an interactive dashboard for exploring the forecasts by area, age and year
- a short summary report in the form of a JSNA bitesize (also attached)
- an excel pack with forecasts for districts (single year of age) and MSOAs (5 year age bands)
These short term, small area forecasts take into account the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire and show a total population in Oxfordshire of 822,200 by 2027, a growth of 134,800 (+20%). Over the same period the ONS projections (based on past trends) show an increase of +3%. Differences are particularly apparent for the younger and working age groups. For older people, aged 65 and over, the predicted growth shown by OCC and ONS is similar.
The 2019 update is based on:
- Actual and forecast housing completions provided by District Councils as of March 2019;
- Births, deaths and migration data from Office for National Statistics (ONS);
- ONS data on future fertility rates and future mortality rates;
- Population profile in the first year (starting population) by district, age and sex from the 2017 ONS mid-year population estimate, with the exception of the age range 21-34 for Oxford city where the ONS SPD is used (a more accurate method for capturing student flows).