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JSNA: Oxfordshire County Council’s housing-led population forecasts

June 23, 2021

The June 2021 update of Oxfordshire County Council’s housing-led population forecasts (for Oxfordshire county, districts and Middle Layer Super Output Areas) is now available on Oxfordshire Insight.

JSNA_Bitesize_Population_Jun21_v2

The shows an overall predicted growth of 20% in the population of Oxfordshire, to a total of 832,300 by 2029.

Background

Oxfordshire County Council carries out an annual update to housing-led population forecasts to support planning for school places, social care and other services.  These differ from the population projections provided by ONS in that they:

  • provide estimates of population change at a small area level (Middle Layer Super Output Areas, 86 in Oxfordshire);
  • take into account the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire from planned district housing trajectories as of March 2021

It is important to note that the rate of housebuilding is an input to the model and the outputs reflect the expected population if that level of housebuilding takes place. The forecasts, therefore, are not indicative of housing need, and should not be used or interpreted as such.

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